Ponencia: Dispersion upscaling in highly heterogeneous aquifers: The prediction of tracer dispersion at the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site
through advective motion of idealized solute particles, which changes their speed at fixed distances. The series of particles speeds is modeled as a stationary Markov chain. The derived model is parameterized by the
correlation length, mean and variance of the log-hydraulic conductivity, the mean hydraulic gradient and porosity. Furthermore, it can be conditioned on the conductivity and tracer data at the injection region.
The model predicts the main features of the non-Fickian evolution of the longitudinal concentration profile observed during the MADE-1 and MADE-2 experiments. The mass distribution is characterized by strong localization at the injection region and
a strong forward tail. These features are explained by heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity heterogeneity, and the correlated motion of particles according to spatially persistent Lagrangian flow speeds.