Autor: Dmitri Kavetski (University of Adelaide, Australia)
Battling hydrological monsters: How do we deal with predictive streamflow uncertainty?
Abstract:
Hydrological models are widely used as scientific tools to improve our understanding of the water cycle, and as engineering tools to help anticipate events such as floods, future water availability, and so forth. This talk will review selected advances in rainfall-runoff model development and application, including: (i) the use of probabilistic methods to characterise uncertainty in streamflow predictions, with applications in seasonal streamflow forecasting; (ii) the use of flexible models to capture dominant hydrological mechanisms in catchments of interest, including spatially distributed applications. Results presented will include outcomes from the collaboration with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on seasonal streamflow forecasting.
